NBA Matchup Predictor: Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks

Wednesday, November 29, 2023 09:30AM

The Lone Star Rivalry Ignites!

Tuesday night’s divisional matchup features the Houston Rockets (8-6, 10-3-1 ATS, 4-10 O/U) against the Dallas Mavericks (10-6, 8-8 ATS, 11-5 O/U). Against the Nuggets in their most recent matchup, the Rockets scored a significant home victory. The Clippers just handed the Mavericks a road defeat. In their last meeting, Dallas defeated the Rockets 3-1.

The Houston Rockets are vying for their third consecutive triumph. Houston rebounded from a three-game losing streak by defeating the Grizzlies 111-91 at home and were marked as 2.5-point favorites in Friday’s dominant 105-86 home victory over the Nuggets. The youthful squad has a 7-3 record in their last ten contests and is gaining confidence. They have an astounding record of covering the spread in ten consecutive games.

Rockets Remaining Hot in a Victory Over the Nuggets

Alperen Sengun has scored at least 21 points in four of his last five contests, including 30 points in that stretch against the Warriors. He continues to excel. At this time of year, the center, age 21, is averaging 20.2 PPG and 9.1 RPG. Jalen Green, who has scored 34 and 25 points in his last two games, is also in a rhythm. On 42% shooting, the 21-year-old shooting guard has raised his season average to 19.6 PPG. Against the Mavericks, he averaged 20.8 points in four contests last season. Fred VanVleet has recorded four consecutive games in which his shooting percentage fell below 45%. In his rookie season with the Rockets, the seasoned point guard has performed below expectations, averaging 16.6 points per game on 38.9% shooting.

The Rockets have not spent a great deal of time traveling. They have yet to earn a victory on the road, with a 0-5 record this season, including a 0-3 road trip last week. Houston is ranked 27th with an average of 109.6 points per game this season. In the past decade, the defense has performed admirably. They are limiting opponents to 104.4 points, the most in the NBA.

Mavericks Return Home

The Dallas Mavericks are seeking to recover from a one-dimensional performance last week. Despite losing three of their last four games on the road, they have suffered three consecutive losses. The lone victory during that stretch was a road triumph over the Lakers, 104-101. On Saturday, the Mavericks were underdogs by 1.5 points in a 107-88 road loss to the Clippers. The Mavs have only failed to cover the spread once in their previous three home contests.

Two of the last three games have seen Luka Doncic shoot below 39%, which is a lackluster performance. On Saturday, the 24-year-old point guard recorded a career-high 30 points. This month, he has averaged 30.5 points per game and 7.9 rebounds per game. Kyrie Irving has accumulated a minimum of 23 points in four of his previous five contests. The point guard, who is 31 years old, scored 39 points in a recent loss to the Bucks and has amassed 24.4 points per game and 5.5 assists per game on the season. Three of Tim Hardaway Jr.’s last four contests have witnessed him shoot at or below 45%. The seasoned small forward has provided 17.1 PPG on 42.5% shooting on average.

Dallas has spent a significant portion of the season on the road, going 4-2 in their last six home contests. Two of their last three home contests have ended in defeat, including last week’s 129-113 loss to the Kings. They have gone three consecutive games with 113 or fewer points scored and are fifth in the standings with a respectable 119.4 point average this season. With 118.3 points conceded on average, the Mavericks are ranked twenty-fourth in the NBA.

The Houston Rockets have been a distinct team when playing away from home, despite their recent success. This season, they are a dismal 0-5 on the road. At home, the Dallas Mavericks are a respectable 4-2.

Moreover, with an average of 111.9 points per 100 possessions, the Rockets are positioned nineteenth in offensive rating. In contrast, a formidable Mavericks squad ranks fourth in the NBA with an impressive 118 points per 100 minutes on average. The Rockets, who have an improved defensive performance, have struggled considerably more on the road, relinquishing an average of 115 points in five road games, which is significantly higher than their season average of 104.4 points. The Rockets are finally regressing, and I anticipate the Mavs to prevail convincingly.

Prediction: -5.5 for the Dallas Mavericks


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